A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
